Remember, These are Only Opinions …

December 08, 2010

When do you think the housing market will recover?

That was the question posed to home buyers in a survey at the beginning of November.

The results, released Tuesday by Harris Interactive on behalf of Trulia and RealtyTrac, showed that 58 percent of U.S. adults believe it will take at least another two years.

Here’s when American adults believe housing will recover:

Lots of for sale signs outside houses.*2015: 22 percent

*2014: 12 percent

*2013: 24 percent

*2012: 27 percent

*2011: 10 percent

*2010: 1 percent

*Already recovered: 4 percent

Wonder where the people live who believe the housing market has already recovered.

“More and more, American homeowners, -sellers and -buyers are tamping down their expectations for a swift recovery in the housing market and bracing themselves for a long, slow climb back to a healthy real estate market,” said Pete Flint, co-founder and CEO, Trulia. “Fifty-eight percent believe recovery will happen after 2012 and more than one in five U.S. adults believe recovery won’t happen until 2015 or later.”

More stats from the survey:

*48 percent of homeowners with a mortgage said they would consider walking away if their mortgage was under water, up from 41 percent in May. Men (57 percent) are more likely than women (40 percent) to consider a strategic default to deal with their negative equity.

*Only 10 percent would have a tenant move in to help with the mortgage.

*49 percent would consider buying a foreclosed property, and 97 percent believe they would get a discount on a foreclosed home.

“It seems like consumer expectations and market realities are beginning to align when it comes to foreclosure discounts,” said Rick Sharga, senior vice president, RealtyTrac. “During the third quarter, foreclosure homes sold for an average of 32 percent less than homes not in foreclosure. It’s also not surprising that we’ve seen an increase in negative sentiment toward foreclosure purchases, where the recent robo-signing controversy has added more confusion to an already complicated process.”

Thanks to that robo-signing controversy, half of U.S. adults surveyed said they now have less faith in mortgage lenders, banks and the government.

“We don’t see a full market recovery until 2014,” Sharga told Reuters on Tuesday.

Let’s switch to a more positive opinion:

TransUnion released its annual forecast to show that mortgage loan delinquencies will drop nearly 20 percent by the end of 2011 to 4.98 percent. That would be the first drop below 5 percent since 2008.

“We believe the nation will experience an improvement in mortgage delinquencies during 2011,” said Steve Chaouki of TransUnion. “This will be driven by a slowly improving unemployment picture and continued stabilization in housing prices. While there is continued price pressure in many markets, we expect a growing number of areas of the country to experience a rise in property values along with some stabilization of values in those states and markets hardest hit by the recession.”

No one knows what 2011 will bring, but it can’t hurt to think positive.

When do you think the housing market will recover?

Categories: Economy, Mortgages

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