Guess Future Chicago Real Estate Prices, Win Dough

April 16, 2011

Where do you think Chicago home prices will be in June?

If you are right, you could win some cash.

Lucid Realty, Inc. is running a Chicago home price forecasting contest that allows contestants to buy and sell “shares” of the Case Shiller home price index for Chicago using virtual money you get when you register.

Here’s the way the contest works:

woman looking into a crystal ball with a house in it.*Participants use the money (inkles) to make predictions and trade their shares.

*Everyone’s opinion is combined to form a consensus forecast

*The most accurate forecasters will earn more virtual dollars.

In the end, the top three forecasters will split $500 in prize money. Real money, not the virtual stuff.

“Everyone has an opinion on home prices,” said Gary Lucido, Lucid Realty’s President. “In general, sidelined home sellers think prices are going up while sidelined home buyers think prices are going down.

“I can access forecasts from economists but they don’t set the prices. I want to know what the people in the market think. I also want to give people an opportunity to put their virtual money where their mouth is. And I think this will be fun.”

The Standard & Poor/Case-Shiller Home Price Index tracks changes in the value of residential real estate throughout the country’s top 20 metropolitan regions.  The indices are calculated monthly and announced with a two-month lag, so June’s home price index will be released in August.

As a point of reference, the non-seasonally adjusted value of Chicago’s January index was 115.78. In June 2010, the year prior to the contest month, the index was 124.90. At its peak in September 2006, the index hit 168.60 and has steadily been declining ever since.

Today’s current value is 111.78.

So, if I understand this right, if you think the June index will increase 10 percent from January, you should buy shares of the index until the market rises to 127.36, which is 1.10 x the January number.

For complete contest rules and to enter, visit csforecast.com.

Good luck!

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Read All Stories By Tracey



This is another great post on this excellent site. I need to look into this further to see if I can play. What a great way to get more in tune with the market!
Brian Hayes


Thanks, Brian!

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